ABN AMRO analysts predict a record year for installations. The price of solar panels has fallen by an average of 20% over the past year due to a large oversupply from Chinese manufacturers. This makes the payback period shorter than ever: an average of 5 to 6 years.
For consumers, this is the ideal time to get started. With current energy prices and low panel prices, the business case is stronger than ever. Installers are seeing a doubling of requests compared to last year.
Why are solar panel prices falling?
The price drop is no coincidence, but the result of several mutually reinforcing developments:
- Oversupply from China: Chinese manufacturers have greatly expanded their production capacity in recent years. Supply exceeds global demand, which has caused panel prices to plummet.
- More efficient panels: Modern panels generate more power per square metre. You therefore need fewer panels for the same result.
- Economies of scale for installers: Thanks to high demand, installation companies work more efficiently, which lowers total installation costs.
- 0% VAT: Since 2023 you no longer pay VAT on the purchase and installation of solar panels on homes — a direct 21% saving.
What does a solar panel installation cost in 2026?
The exact price depends on the number of panels, the type and the complexity of your roof. As a guide, the average total prices including installation and 0% VAT:
| System | Annual generation | Indicative price |
|---|---|---|
| 6 panels (approx. 2.7 kWp) | ~2,400 kWh | €2,800 – €3,400 |
| 10 panels (approx. 4.5 kWp) | ~3,800 kWh | €4,200 – €5,000 |
| 14 panels (approx. 6.3 kWp) | ~5,300 kWh | €5,800 – €6,800 |
An average household consumes around 2,800 to 3,500 kWh per year. A system of 10 panels therefore covers the full annual consumption in many cases.
How do you calculate the payback period?
You calculate the payback period by dividing the investment by your annual saving. An example: a €4,500 system that saves around €800 in electricity costs per year has a payback period of approximately 5.6 years. Since solar panels last 25 years or longer, you then enjoy virtually free electricity for decades. The more electricity you use directly yourself, the faster your system pays for itself.
What to look out for in a quote
- Power (Wp) per panel: More Wp means more output per panel.
- Quality of the inverter: The inverter is the heart of your system and often lasts less long than the panels. Check the warranty.
- Warranty conditions: Good panels have a 25-year product warranty and a power warranty of at least 85% after 25 years.
- Installer experience: Ask for references and whether the installer is certified.
- Request multiple quotes: Prices vary considerably — compare at least three providers.
Don’t forget net metering and subsidies
Besides the low panel prices, you currently still benefit from the net metering scheme, which lets you offset the electricity you feed back against your consumption. That scheme ends on 1 January 2027, which actually makes 2026 a favourable moment to get started. Combine this with the 0% VAT and you have the strongest business case in years.
Want to use as much of your generated electricity yourself instead of feeding it back? A plug-in home battery from Zendure (SolarFlow) stores your daytime surplus for the evening — increasingly attractive now that the net metering scheme ends on 1 January 2027.
Combine solar panels with a green energy supplier for maximum effect. Vandebron supplies 100% Dutch green electricity and directly connects you to a wind turbine or solar farm. New customers now receive up to €420 welcome discount.
Frequently asked questions
Is 2026 a good year to buy solar panels?
Yes. Panel prices are historically low, you pay 0% VAT and you still benefit from net metering. That combination makes the payback period shorter than ever.
How long do solar panels last?
Modern panels last 25 to 30 years. The inverter usually needs replacing after 10 to 15 years.
Do I need a large roof?
Not necessarily. For 10 panels you need about 18 to 20 m² of roof surface. A profitable system is often possible on a smaller or sloping roof too.
Read also: Green Electricity Comparison 2026
Related guide: the full Solar Panels guide 2026.